COVID-19: When was the first occurrence in North America? Epidemiological modelling is contradictory to current understanding.
S1: Time from exposure to the pathogen to death 20 days,
S2: Case fatality rate %1,
S3: Doubling time 5 days.
As we can see, corresponding to the first death on Feb 6, it should have been exposed on Jan 17 (20 days earlier). Also, given a case #fatality rate of 1%, there should have been 100 mild or severe cases on Jan 17, which were not diagnosed.
Besides, given a #doubling time of 5 days, it is estimated that on February 6, when the first case died, we were supposed to have 1600 positive cases. We missed them!
- Separately, COVID-19 presents a #Fluu-Like Syndrome" with a negative flu test. The rate of FLS should've been increased in early January. --- Public health missed this anomaly!
--- Does anyone has access to data anywhere?