COVID-19: When was the first occurrence in North America?
COVID-19: When was the first occurrence in North America? Epidemiological modelling is contradictory to current understanding.
Although the first death was recorded on Mar 9, "autopsies" have now revealed that the first confirmed #death in the US occurred in California on Feb 6 (LAT, Mar 23). #Pandemic started much earlier!
#Epidemiological#modelling suggests an even greater gap between the occurrence and the diagnosis of the first case. I developed a model based on the following known assumptions (Figure.)
S1: Time from exposure to the pathogen to death 20 days,
S2: Case fatality rate %1,
S3: Doubling time 5 days.
As we can see, corresponding to the first death on Feb 6, it should have been exposed on Jan 17 (20 days earlier). Also, given a case #fatality rate of 1%, there should have been 100 mild or severe cases on Jan 17, which were not diagnosed.
Besides, given a #doubling time of 5 days, it is estimated that on February 6, when the first case died, we were supposed to have 1600 positive cases. We missed them!
- Separately, COVID-19 presents a #Fluu-Like Syndrome" with a negative flu test. The rate of FLS should've been increased in early January. --- Public health missed this anomaly!
--- Does anyone has access to data anywhere?