COVID-19: Physical #distancing at the expense of lengthening the pandemic at a higher cost. Some macro policy makers argued that we lose 50,000 people annually from the flu & more from car accidents, but we don't ask people not to drive. Since there are far fewer COVID-19 deaths, so we have to do things to get the country open.
The mathematical #model of his argument (graph, equation) highlights the replaced risk (≈ collateral damage) of physical distancing, including potential deaths due to the increase in duration, loss of work and suicide.
First, the point is authentic. We need to integrate these quantifiers into the health policy model by performing a holistic IMPACT Human Health Assessment (HHIS).
This point is also a logical fallacy (the situations are similar, but the circumstances are different to draw the same conclusion). The false analogy is to select the wrong point of comparison.
--- The #flu kills 50,000 Americans each year but remains stable. As for COVID-19, it will kill many more if it becomes uncontrollable.
--- Also, the real #risk for those who can use expensive private hospitals if they need a ventilator to treat #COVID is much lower than those who plan to prevent the health system from being submerged!
Hopefully, our health authorities can argue firmly!
Reza Afshari, PhD