A potential decrease in deaths soon after vaccination is an epidemiological fallacy! That is why! II
Post COVID-19 Vaccine Deaths in Canada (and British Columbia), and vaccine reluctance. How much should we be worried? PART II. An epidemiological fallacy!
--- We could eventually see a decrease in the documentation of deaths within two weeks of vaccination before the immune system even activated! That is why:
Reza Afshari, MD, MPH, PhD, Toxicologist- Epidemiologist, Info@BCtoxicology.com (email to request more information on this article.) 2021-0407
BACKGROUND
As vaccine coverage gradually increases in Canada and British Columbia, side effects or occasional death are reported in the days following vaccination, leading to vaccine reluctance. --- How should we interpret post-vaccination deaths or address the concerns of the public? In the first part of this article, we identify the fatal hazards after vaccination to characterize the risk attributed to vaccination.
Current data suggests minimal, if not negligible, safety concerns regarding vaccination. Post-vaccine deaths occur for a variety of reasons, not because of vaccination.
I have already discussed that there are different reasons for death in the two weeks following vaccination including (see part I for details)
“NORMAL” DEATHS that are mainly linked to other reasons or so-called “normal” deaths. --- In Canada, 285,000 people die each year (38,000 in British Columbia) for many reasons. --- This figure is mathematically equivalent to 11,000 deaths within “two weeks after vaccination” if the entire population (children and adults) is vaccinated (1,500 in British Columbia). (Figure 1).
COVID-19 RELATED DEATHS AFTER VACCINATION More importantly, post-vaccination deaths can occur from COVID-19 in the weeks following vaccination, as immunity from the vaccine takes time to develop (this case would be a vaccinated case who dies from COVID-19.) The additional deaths attributable to COVID19 over the past [one] year have been significant and have resulted in approximately 20,000 deaths in Canada (1,400 in British Columbia). --- This figure is mathematically equivalent to 770 deaths within “two weeks after vaccination” if the entire population (children and adults) is vaccinated (54 in British Columbia). [--- Additional deaths from COVID-19 equal 7% of all deaths; however, more time and data are needed to see if COVID-19-related deaths are in addition to other causes of death or overlap to some extent.] (Figure 1).
COVID-19 SECONDARY (DELAYED) DEATHS Death from COVID-19 could be secondary, as a growing body of evidence suggests that the complication of infection can compromise various organs or systems and lead to side effects or deaths at later stages, which are recognized as post-COVID-19 syndromes. (Figure 1).
VACCINE IS NOT 100% EFFECTIVE Also, the vaccine is not 100% effective, and it is possible that a case will die after vaccination against COVID-19 in the next few months or years, for example, a case of an immune-compromised patient (Figure 1).
DATA PROBLEMS, including UNDER DIAGNOSIS, DATA MISSING, and MISSING ADDRESSES, may intervene in the number of deaths (see part I for more information.)
VACCINE RELATED DECREASED IN THE NUMBER OF DEATHS
At the individual level,
What if a person eligible for vaccination being diagnosed with COVID-19 a few days before the vaccination appointment? They are more likely to postpone their vaccination appointment, while a COVID-19 case is more likely to die, especially in the elderly.
What if a person eligible for vaccination feels unwell for any reason a few days before the appointment? They are more likely to postpone their vaccination appointment, while a sick person is more likely to die, especially in the elderly.
At the population level,
Being more likely to die within a few days of the appointment while being less likely to get the vaccine will artificially decrease deaths after vaccination. (It is plausible to see a slight increase in documentation of deaths before appointment deaths, too.)
Given that background deaths and COVID-related deaths are the main contributors to death, and vaccine-related deaths are negligible, we should see a decrease in the documented number of deaths after vaccination! --- This reduction would be an epidemiological fallacy and is not linked to immunity which would be activated a few weeks after vaccination.
REFERENCES AND FURTHER READINGS
Afshari R. Deaths after COVID-19 Vaccination in Canada (and British Columbia). How much should we be worried (Part I)? Panopticon Analytics Blog, 2020-04-07.